Corona Virus |OT| Kung Flu Fighting

ThunderDan19

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Too many people (many of them idiots) jammed into too small an area. It was...

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inevitable.
 

Videoviper

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We do NOT include NJ with NY city. NY state would cut them out if they could. It’s not a surprise the city is a giant incubator

My friend from college: my guess is that it’s bad, I saw the go fund me page but that’s all I know, except that he is also close to my work.

update: he passed away, family sick also.
 
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ThunderDan19

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N' Olens appears to be next in line. I wonder though if the warmer climate will have an impact.
 

NSA

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Whew... I think the deaths are actually 919 as 50 were held over from yesterday, but that's insane. Almost a thousand dead in 24 hours.

Cases are stabilizing each day, so it doesn't seem to have exponential growth, but it's not stopping either.
 

ThunderDan19

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What's happening in Italy and Spain is awful. NYC is seeing some of that as well, as Covid-19 ravages the aged.

Just a little perspective though (from the CDC):

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Current US is ~1,300.

Current flu deaths for this season is >25,000.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**

Current worldwide is <30K.

Yes, it's a pandemic and it's a terrible thing, but we are still well below where the flu has taken us already every year for as long as people can remember.
 

nacho

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The disconcerting part is how it seemingly takes down healthy people at random, unlike the flu.

And I'm not convinced 20% of the US population actually contracted swine flu. I don't even know anyone that had it and barely remember the outbreak taking place at all. Those numbers seem absurdly high. Maybe I just didn't watch the news, but it was a colossal nothingburger in my mind.
 

NSA

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What's happening in Italy and Spain is awful. NYC is seeing some of that as well, as Covid-19 ravages the aged.

Just a little perspective though (from the CDC):

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Current US is ~1,300.

Current flu deaths for this season is >25,000.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**

Current worldwide is <30K.

Yes, it's a pandemic and it's a terrible thing, but we are still well below where the flu has taken us already every year for as long as people can remember.
So this kind of thinking really irks me. I don't mean to take this out on you (I heart you Dan)

That's akin to saying in 1939:

Well, you know WWI had over 22 million deaths. There have only been 82,343 deaths in WWII so far (Invasion of Poland), so you need some perspective. Yes, war is a terrible thing, but we are still well below where WWI took us last time.


_obviously_ this has only been spreading for a couple of months, and the first 2-3 months it was only really in China.

39 million people got the regular flu this season. 39 MILLION!


Of those 39 million, 24,000 died. That's like... I don't know, 0.006% of Flu cases resulting in death? MIN-IS-CULE.

Right now, there are approximately 96968 cases (and counting) of COVID-19 in the US. We currently have 1477 deaths. That is a case fatality rate of 1.5%. That currently makes COVID-19 over 200x deadlier than "the common flu".

So, if the % hold (which we honestly have no idea), if the same 39,000,000 people got COVID-19 instead of the flu, we wouldn't have 24,000 deaths, we'd have 5,850,000 deaths.

There is no point comparing total COVID-19 to any other disease that's already ran it's course, because, of course, those would have more total deaths/etc. We're trying to predict/guess/etc where this thing CAN go, and none of it looks pretty without severe isolation/etc.
 

ThunderDan19

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NSA: That's why I presented H1N1 first, as it was novel during its initial outbreak. And you were off by a decimal place. If 39M get CVD, at the current death rate we will have 585K deaths (1.5%). But, if treatments and medicines get better, we should be able to reduce it even from there. And the fewer aged and compromised that are exposed, prior to the treatment improvements, the fewer will succumb to it. And, since we are practicing actual countermeasures (that we never do for the flu) to reduce transmission, we may never get near 39M infected.

And, there is potentially a light at the end of this tunnel. Mutation and weather conditions tend to reduce the effectiveness of these Corona/SARS agents within a few months of the initial outbreak. If you believe China, they are already starting to drop off cases dramatically. And they have terrible hygiene and smoking practices, terrible air and are jammed together like NYC. A healthy US population that is practicing good hygiene and social distancing, as well as sheltering their most vulnerable should fare even better.

If China is covering up a continued spread and it comes out that they have lost 1M people with no signs of slowing down, then I'll be worried.

Nacho: I remember there being a light (by current standards at least) hysteria over H1N1, but it being more tamped down by the mass media rather than the current stoking CVD is getting. I believe H1N1 was just the latest version of the seasonal flu, that just happened to attack younger people more than the normal flu.

I think the medical community saw the potential for it to be much worse, but it instead mutated enough to ease up until a vaccine could be generated. Hopefully, we will be able to develop innovative treatments to reduce the fatalities of CVD long enough to get a vaccine developed for next season.
 

NSA

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Ah, I hate decimal places. I do think/hope our crazy actions will help keep this tamped down, but the cities where people are stacked on each other can turn into really bad outbreaks.

Reported US coronavirus cases and deaths via @CNN

4 weeks ago: 61 cases, 0 deaths
3 weeks ago: 265 cases, 14 deaths
2 weeks ago: 1,899 cases, 41 deaths
1 week ago: 15,905 cases, 208 deaths
Right now: 95,174 cases, 1,451 deaths

Some of the bigger states have done lockdowns, but not all, and people aren't really obeying it either. It's really easy to look at 2 and 3 weeks ago and say, eh, it's not that bad. Hell, CA locked down 2 weeks ago today. There were only 1899 cases and 41 deaths in the whole US! Why the hell would you lock down the state for THAT? Thankfully some people could see what is coming.

Italy locking down seems to have stopped it from spreading exponentially, but even with their full lock down, they're still seeing 5-6K new cases per day. If it's still being able to spread that much IN lock down.. it bodes poorly, as I think that'll still overwhelm the health care systems there.
 

nacho

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If there was a hysteria over H1N1, even a light one, I don't remember it. I recall that there was a swine flu, but it never changed anything in my sphere. But like I said, maybe I just wasn't watching the news.

It was before the crash of '11 so I can't search, but I don't think we had a 12-page thread with daily updates about H1N1. Unless you had a close relative affected by it, H1N1 was mostly a big "meh".

To be fair, if I wasn't watching the news now, I likely wouldn't know anything about commie cough either. I'd just be foolishly wondering why restaurant dining rooms are closed and all the chicken is cleaned out at the store. My county has exactly ONE reported case, and FIFTY-THREE THOUSAND people are supposed to hunker down like it's the end of days? That seems like a bit of an over-reaction.
 

ThunderDan19

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Another thing to remember is that the (bulk of the) people dying from CVD are those who would die from any serious illness they contract. They are the elderly and the immunocompromised. This is very much true in Italy (thus its huge numbers - look up the demographics of the areas hardest hit there) and it is true here as well (look at the facilities and neighborhoods hardest hit here). What CVD brings to the table is significantly higher virulence and no vaccine as of yet (flu does). If we can keep it away from the soft targets such as elder communities, nursing homes and chronic care hospitals, it is actually not that harmful to the greater population. Even less so by some accounts than the regular or H1N1 flu.

Do we need to take precautions for the sake of the most at risk? Absolutely. Should we tank the economy indefinitely and double our debt for it? As of now, there is not enough data to say that is even close to necessary to protect the lives of the vast vast majority of the people. Let's not get into the anecdotal stuff. People can have undiagnosed compromised systems. Yes, some younger people have died, but without full autopsies, there's no way to know if it was actually an underlying heart or lung condition that something else would just as easily exacerbated.

My feeling is that we should - now that everybody has gotten a dose of reality and has hopefully picked up some good hygiene habits - start to step back from the full shutdown to start allowing the healthy to begin to return to their workplaces and begin living their lives again, particularly in the places that are far from being hot zones. People need to make money to pay their rent/mortgage, buy food and live their lives.
 

nacho

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I don't disagree because that's a rational and reasoned response, but if you say those words outside of this forum.....

YOU WANNA KILL GRANDMA JUST SO STOCK PRICES WILL GO UP! ONE LIFE IS TOO MANY! FUCK YOU! ORANGE MAN BAD!
 

ThunderDan19

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No kidding. Will it be bad? Yes. Will it be as bad as they are building it up to be? Probably not.

They’d have a lot more credibility if they hadn’t already been doing everything imaginable to disqualify the 2016 election for the past 4 years.
 

pcsguy88

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Another thing to remember is that the (bulk of the) people dying from CVD are those who would die from any serious illness they contract. They are the elderly and the immunocompromised. This is very much true in Italy (thus its huge numbers - look up the demographics of the areas hardest hit there) and it is true here as well (look at the facilities and neighborhoods hardest hit here). What CVD brings to the table is significantly higher virulence and no vaccine as of yet (flu does). If we can keep it away from the soft targets such as elder communities, nursing homes and chronic care hospitals, it is actually not that harmful to the greater population. Even less so by some accounts than the regular or H1N1 flu.

Do we need to take precautions for the sake of the most at risk? Absolutely. Should we tank the economy indefinitely and double our debt for it? As of now, there is not enough data to say that is even close to necessary to protect the lives of the vast vast majority of the people. Let's not get into the anecdotal stuff. People can have undiagnosed compromised systems. Yes, some younger people have died, but without full autopsies, there's no way to know if it was actually an underlying heart or lung condition that something else would just as easily exacerbated.

My feeling is that we should - now that everybody has gotten a dose of reality and has hopefully picked up some good hygiene habits - start to step back from the full shutdown to start allowing the healthy to begin to return to their workplaces and begin living their lives again, particularly in the places that are far from being hot zones. People need to make money to pay their rent/mortgage, buy food and live their lives.
So I too keep going back and forth on the current response to Covid in the US. It seems awfully drastic to tank the economy over a few deaths, but China did the same thing as is every country that gets it. I’ve never seen a disease spread so effortlessly with horrific, yet probably acceptable results by the time it’s all over. Like Nacho, I did not even realize swine flu was in the US and certainly did not witness a panick.

This is what I have settled on in my poorly educated brain in order to process this craziness:

- 20% of known cases are hospitalized and those beds are being occupied for 2-3 weeks which is triple the time a flu patient needs a bed and ventilator. This is a huge strain on the system which leads to covid patients being triaged by age and normal trauma patients being SOL.

- It takes a week or two to die from Covid, so doing the whole total deaths divided by total cases is nonsense. Look at NSA’s historic numbers above from CNN and add a week lag time into that calculation:
1 week ago: 15,905 cases, 208 deaths
Right now: 95,174 cases, 1,451 deaths
So 1451 deaths divided by 15905 cases a week ago gives you a 9.6% death rate in CONFIRMED cases. Now we are getting way closer to #’s that make rational sense for putting the world society on pause. This number also matches up with Spain and Italy’s reported death rates.

So do I care if 1.5% of grandma’s die this year in this country? Probably not, but 9.6% is a staggering number for me to digest and even if it’s lower in reality, it’s still clogging up beds and causing people needing other surgeries to suffer or die.
 
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NSA

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I would guess that's just to save them the effort of extending it next month. They say it can be reduced as needed.

My feeling is things will be on the mend by May, but April is going to suck in a lot of smaller places that aren't taking things seriously now. The big cities will flare up, but they have enough resources and publicity to get a handle on it after a week or two.
 

ThunderDan19

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Ugh. Our governor is an over-reactive moron. We have a total of 1000 cases confirmed, over half of which are up in the three northern most counties. Twenty-five people have died here since this began over a month ago, half of those in one area with a senior community that got infected. He already closed schools for the year two weeks ago. All I get from this is, "Look at us. We're doing something..." :rolleyes:
 

nacho

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My feeling is things will be on the mend by May, but April is going to suck in a lot of smaller places that aren't taking things seriously now. The big cities will flare up, but they have enough resources and publicity to get a handle on it after a week or two.
Certainly smaller places are lagging, but they will also have much smaller peaks from having a longer heads-up to prepare (and from our natural state of social distancing). It's not that smaller places aren't taking things seriously, it's just that most of them don't have a ton of gatherings to begin with. We have no subway system, and there were no scheduled Fish concerts. When they've already eliminated school, church, little-league, and restaurants, that's 97% of small town social activity. There's little left to cut back on, so might as well let people continue to live and "be smart, stay apart" ...or something like that.

ThunderDan19 yeah, that sounds like a bit of grandstanding. We have 1800 cases, 13 deaths in TN as of an hour ago. We're up to a staggering TWO cases in my county. But TN currently has a non-politician businessman as governor, and he's very resistant to the "shut it down" mindset. It appears he thinks we can weather things with adequate common sense precautions. Let's hope. I suspect he'll be one of the last to shutter "non-essential" businesses.
 
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NSA

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It's odd because some of our states are akin to whole other countries. It seems like it starts small and then invariably spreads unless there is a super lock down (South Korea).

Middle America is spread out though, so that would theoretically help things. I still haven't seen good concrete info on asymptomatic spread though. One sick trucker who doesn't feel sick can still spread the damn thing all over the state.

Also, the stupid thing is.. if the lock down works, you won't see high numbers, so people will say "SEE! WE DIDN'T NEED A LOCK DOWN!" but if you don't and the numbers spike, it's unlikely a lock down will help at that point.

Italy has an 11.39% sCFR right now (symptomatic case fatality rate, so death rate of those tested with symptoms). That's averaged out with the still low rates of those under 50 years old. So it's more like 15% of grandpa's and grandma's are dying from this thing. That is a not tiny number.

Also, don't forget old people tend to vote Republican, so a reduction in that voting block only helps the left.