The March Towards War With Iran

ThunderDan19

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#81
Question:

If Trump restrains from launching a strike (assuming everything stays as is) does this make him the level headed leader we’ve been begging for? Do his poll numbers surge from sticking to his word of no new wars? Or does it make us look weak in the eyes of the world and voters?

Why do I get the feeling Iran shot down that Ukrainian airliner by mistake thinking it was us?
Who has been in the news lately? Ukraine and Iran. Coincidence? It also happened to have been a stretched B737 that went down. Also very similar to the 737 Max planes that have been grounded. Who might have been traveling from Iran to Ukraine that needed to disappear? What does it all mean? Dunno. But it is strange...

(Your second tweet won't load BTW)

I'm shocked that: Iran launches 15 SRBMs, 4 fail, 10 hit (in the proximity of) one base, 1 hits another and zero KIA. What does that tell you about their conventional ability to inflict damage on a relatively close (but not rocket truck close) enemy concentration? Who fires "guided" missiles to miss? Nobody does. I don't buy it. I just think their stuff is either a.) not accurate and/or powerful enough (think SCUDs from the Persian Gulf War) or b.) we have countermeasures on those bases to shoot down incoming missiles en route (there were a lot more than 10 booms on that clip). If we don't have THAADs or Patriots there by now, we best get them there.

IMO, Trump's best response is to target what remains of Iran's inventory of those missiles. I believe they have between 2 and 3K of them total. If we were to remotely, via drone or stealth tech, take out say a quarter to half of what's left, with minimal casualties on either side, that would be an appropriate response. You shoot these at us, you lose them.
 

pcsguy88

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#82
The 2nd tweet was a video from someone in the base filming some ground based Phalanx system sending solid streams of red tracers into the air, drawing in the sky like a laser light show with audio of brrrrrrrrrt brrrrrrrrrrt brrrrrrrrrt and explosions in the background. The video suddenly cuts with a BOOM when a missile clearly hits nearby.

Of course Twitter removed evidence from the ground.

My response would be to send 100 cheap drones with radar reflectors over Iran and make them waste all their S400's at great expense.
 

ThunderDan19

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#83
Man, I would love to have seen that. I didn't think the Phalanx units worked well against the high arc of an incoming SRBM (much better against straight in anti-ship or cruise missiles). I thought interception is usually left to the ABMMS.
 

pcsguy88

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#85
Hard to say if they were hitting anything, but might explain the 4 that missed their targets. 1 rocket definitely got thru and hit close enough to make the cellphone cameraman drop to the ground as the feed cut. I didn't know they used Gatling guns as land based air defense, but I imagine they'd be effective against choppers and close jets.

I can't help but wonder the reasons we did not intercept with missiles. Did we know where the rockets were going to hit once they were in the air? Did we hope they'd cause casualties so we could strike back? Did we just not want to spend the money?
 

pcsguy88

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#92
Interesting the pilot was radio silent for the entire event. If it was shot down, it had to have taken out all electricity, the radios or the pilots instantly. Cockpit recorder would clear that up real fast.
 

ThunderDan19

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Pretty hard to tell from that distance (based on the delay of the flash to the explosion noise reaching the guy - he would have been tens of miles away from it), but it certainly could be. I also had heard that two missiles were launched. So either they impacted just about simultaneously (there might have been a super close boomboom there) or the other strike was not captured on that video - if that was it.
 

NSA

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Someone said they geo-located the video and it is in roughly the right place to have seen it, all things considered.

Always grain of salt, but it does seem to line up so far.

Canada said they confirmed with their own sources that Iran shot it down.

Iran just needs to apologize for the accident. I doubt they really tried to shoot it down on purpose, shit happens in the fog of war. Apologize and make some half-ass statment and move on. If they try to bury/cover it up, it's only going to get worse for them.
 
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